This event contains two independent markets, each with its own resolution source. Every market in this event may resolve to "No".

"Violent": This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns In-fa the intensity class "Violent" (10-minute sustained winds of 105 kt or more) in the "Intensity" field of any analysis it publishes for the storm (JMA typhoon number 2631) by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en.

"Super Typhoon": This market will resolve to "Yes" immediately once the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issues a Tropical Cyclone Warning for In-fa (JTWC tropical cyclone 30W) whose title designates the storm a "Super Typhoon" (1-minute sustained winds of 130 kt or more), provided that warning is issued by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html.

For both markets, only the operational analysis or warning issued by the named agency by the deadline counts. Forecast entries, other agencies' classifications, and post-season best track data will not be considered for resolution. Once a qualifying analysis or warning has been issued, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent revisions, unless the issuing agency corrects it as erroneous before that market resolves. If the agency stops issuing analyses or warnings for In-fa without a qualifying classification, the relevant market will resolve to "No" at that time. No substitute data provider will be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" immediately once the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issues a Tropical Cyclone Warning for In-fa (JTWC tropical cyclone 30W) whose title designates the storm a "Super Typhoon", provided that warning is issued by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

JTWC designates a "Super Typhoon" when a warning lists maximum sustained winds (one-minute average) of 130 kt or more. Only the designation in a warning's title will be considered. Forecast intensities within a warning, prognostic reasoning, Significant Tropical Weather Advisories, and post-season best track data will not be considered for resolution. Classifications issued by any agency other than JTWC, including JMA, will not be considered for resolution.

If JTWC issues its final warning for In-fa without having designated it a "Super Typhoon", this market will resolve to "No" at that time. No substitute data provider will be used.

If JTWC corrects or amends a warning before this market resolves, the corrected warning will be used. Otherwise the issued warning stands. Temporary display glitches that do not appear in JTWC's issued warnings will not be considered.

Otherwise, once an issued warning has designated In-fa a "Super Typhoon", this market will resolve to "Yes" immediately, regardless of any later warning, amendment, or revision.

Every market in this event may resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Warnings issued by JTWC for In-fa (30W) at https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html, specifically the storm designation in each warning's title (for example, "SUPER TYPHOON 30W (IN-FA) WARNING"). 

Please note that this market is about the designation according to JTWC, not according to JMA or any other agency.

Super Typhoon

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns In-fa the intensity class "Violent" in any analysis it publishes for the storm by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

JMA states the intensity class in the "Intensity" field of each analysis it publishes for the storm. Forecast entries will not be considered for resolution. Classifications issued by any agency other than JMA will not be considered for resolution. Post-season best track data for In-fa will not be considered for resolution.

If JMA stops publishing analyses for In-fa without having assigned it the intensity class "Violent", this market will resolve to "No" at that time. No substitute data provider will be used.

If JMA corrects an analysis as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected analysis will be used. If JMA removes an analysis as erroneous without replacement, the remaining analyses will be used. Otherwise the published analysis stands. Temporary display glitches that do not appear in JMA's published data will not be considered.

Otherwise, once a published analysis has assigned In-fa the intensity class "Violent", this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent revisions.

Every market in this event may resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the analyses published by JMA for In-fa (JMA typhoon number 2631) at https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en, specifically the intensity class stated in the "Intensity" field. Past analyses for T2631 can be viewed at https://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/202631.html.en, which republishes JMA's track data and shows Maximum Wind instead of the Intensity class; there, a Maximum Wind of 105 kt or more corresponds to "Violent".

Please note that this market is about the intensity class according to JMA, not according to any other agency.

Violent

How strong will In-fa be?

This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Arnab. Peak intensity means the highest category of cyclonic disturbance that the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre for Tropical Cyclones, New Delhi (RSMC New Delhi), operated by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), assigns to Arnab's observed intensity in a Tropical Cyclone Advisory published for the storm. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". RSMC New Delhi's own bounds, in 3-minute maximum sustained surface wind, are: "Severe cyclonic storm or weaker" is under 64 kt, "Very severe cyclonic storm" is 64 to 89 kt, "Extremely severe cyclonic storm" is 90 to 119 kt, and "Super cyclonic storm" is 120 kt or more.

RSMC New Delhi states the category in the subject line of each Tropical Cyclone Advisory and in the first row of the advisory's forecast table, which gives the storm's intensity at the observation time the advisory is based on. Only that observed intensity will be considered. Forecast entries will not be considered for resolution. National bulletins, press releases and other IMD products will not be considered, and neither will classifications issued by any agency other than RSMC New Delhi. Post-season best track data and reports for Arnab will not be considered for resolution.

This market will resolve once RSMC New Delhi stops publishing Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Arnab. If RSMC New Delhi has not stopped publishing Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Arnab by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the highest category published up to that time. No substitute data provider will be used.

Revisions published before RSMC New Delhi stops publishing Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Arnab will be considered; revisions published after that point will not be considered for resolution.

If RSMC New Delhi corrects an advisory as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected advisory will be used. If RSMC New Delhi removes an advisory as erroneous without replacement, the highest category published in the remaining advisories will be used. Otherwise the published advisory stands. Temporary display glitches that do not appear in RSMC New Delhi's published advisories will not be considered.

Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous advisory under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Advisories published by RSMC New Delhi for Arnab at https://rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/, specifically the category of cyclonic disturbance stated for the storm's observed intensity. On that page, the latest Tropical Cyclone Advisory is the link labeled "RSMC Bulletin" in the "Cyclone Warnings/Advisory" section; the "National Bulletin", "TCAC Bulletin" and other links in that section are different products. Past Tropical Cyclone Advisories are archived at https://rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/archive-information.php?internal_menu=Mg==&menu_id=OQ==, where each is listed as "RSMC Bulletin based on" followed by its observation time and date (for example, "RSMC Bulletin based on 09:00:00 UTC of 26-10-2026").

Very severe cyclonic storm

Super cyclonic storm

Extremely severe cyclonic storm

How strong will Arnab be?

This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".

A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".

Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026. 

Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.

If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.

If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.

Hawaii

New Jersey

Louisiana

Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?

This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.

All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.

One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".

If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).

Greater than 8

How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?

For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.  

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. 

If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.

Hurricanes

How strong will In-fa be?

How strong will Arnab be?

Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?

How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?